diff --git a/trades/INTC-iron-fly-2026-05.md b/trades/INTC-iron-fly-2026-05.md index 47c8249..b119f0b 100644 --- a/trades/INTC-iron-fly-2026-05.md +++ b/trades/INTC-iron-fly-2026-05.md @@ -353,19 +353,39 @@ The diagonal expresses bullishness honestly — you give up the cheap-and-define ### 12.7 What this means for THIS position -The current INTC iron fly is already entered — these 10/10 upgrades don't make it worse, they just say: next time, pair an iron fly with a small directional companion trade. +The current INTC iron fly is already entered — these 10/10 upgrades don't make it worse. They just describe what to do next time, and what to do at the conversion point. -**Action item for THIS position**: keep it as-is, follow §5-§8. But also consider opening a **small ($300-500 debit) Jan 2027 long $130 call** alongside it as a separate "moonshot capture" leg. The iron fly handles the calm-rally scenario; the long call handles the gov-shock-rally scenario. Together they cover the full bullish thesis without leaving the upside on the table. +**Action item for THIS position**: keep it as-is, follow §5-§8. **DO NOT** open a separate long call now as a "companion" — INTC IV is too rich, and a Jan 2027 OTM call costs $1,500-1,900 (3-4× the iron fly's own max loss). Buying expensive vol while betting that vol will fall is internally inconsistent. -| Combined position | Max loss | Best case (INTC $200) | Calm-rally case (INTC $135) | -|---|---:|---:|---:| -| Iron fly alone | −$558 | +$442 | **+$2,942** | -| Long call alone | −$500 (debit) | +$6,500 | −$500 | -| **Both together** | **−$1,058** | **+$6,942** | **+$2,442** | +**The real "companion" is the conversion product itself.** §6 already describes it: -Cost: an extra $500 of capital at risk. Gain: meaningful upside capture if you're right about the moonshot. Worst case: INTC stays calm and you net $2,442 (still positive) instead of $2,942. **The companion trade is a $500 cost to remove the upside cap.** +> After 3 months of stable INTC + IV crush, close 3 legs of the iron fly. You're left holding the original long $160 call at a near-zero net cost basis, financed by realized theta from the short straddle and the long $100 put. -That single addition takes this specific situation from 8.5/10 to ~9.5/10. The remaining 0.5 is multi-name diversification, which only matters across many trades — not this one. +**The conversion IS the companion long call.** It gives you: +- Uncapped upside above $160 (vs the iron fly's +$442 cap) +- ~$45 net cost basis (vs $1,870 if bought outright today) +- Funded by 3 months of time decay, not fresh capital +- Same Jan 2027 expiry, same $160 strike — same payoff profile as a standalone long call, but at 4% of the cost + +``` +Two paths to the same position (long $160 call, Jan 2027): + + Buy outright now → pay $1,870 cash + Iron fly + 3-month convert → pay ~$45 net (theta funds it) + + collect ~$2,000 realized profit along the way +``` + +The conversion is dramatically more capital-efficient than opening a separate companion trade. **Treat §6 as the companion plan, not an additional position.** + +#### Rejected alternatives (and why) + +| Idea | Cost | Why rejected | +|---|---:|---| +| Add a long $170 call now | $1,870 | 3.4× iron fly risk; buys expensive 80% IV; redundant with conversion plan | +| Add a $160/$190 call spread now | $790 | Caps moonshot; defeats the "uncap upside" goal | +| Add a long $200 call now | ~$800-1,000 | Not in current chain; far OTM with limited delta | + +**Decision: NO companion position added at entry.** The §6 conversion creates the equivalent position at a fraction of the cost. ---