Vol Surface: top-right HV-vs-IV comparison card

Adds a compact card in the page header that shows ATM IV alongside
realized vol over 20/30/60-day windows, the IV-minus-HV spread in
vol points, and a RICH/FAIR/CHEAP verdict (driven by IV/HV30 ratio:
>=1.20x = RICH, <=0.80x = CHEAP, otherwise FAIR). Lets you eyeball
whether options are priced rich relative to recent realized vol the
moment the surface loads.

- datafetch.ts: extract annualizedVolWindow helper; new
  fetchHistoricalVolWindows() returns hv20/hv30/hv60 from one
  ~90-day Yahoo historical pull
- options.ts: /api/analytics includes hvWindows in response
- surface.html: top-right hviv-card with per-window rows + footer
  showing IV/HV ratio and sample size

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/src/lib/datafetch.ts

@@ -19,44 +19,70 @@ const yf = new YahooFinance({ suppressNotices: ["yahooSurvey"] });
 
 const RISK_FREE_RATE = 0.05;
 
+/** Annualized stdev of the last N log returns (N trading-day window). 0 if not enough data. */
+function annualizedVolWindow(logReturns: number[], window: number): number {
+  if (logReturns.length < window) return 0;
+  const slice = logReturns.slice(-window);
+  const mean = slice.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / slice.length;
+  const variance = slice.reduce((sum, r) => sum + (r - mean) ** 2, 0) / (slice.length - 1);
+  return Math.sqrt(variance * 252);
+}
+
+export type HvWindows = {
+  hv20: number;
+  hv30: number;
+  hv60: number;
+  /** Trading days of data actually used in the longest window (capped at the window size). */
+  samples: { hv20: number; hv30: number; hv60: number };
+};
+
 /**
- * Compute 30-day annualized realized volatility from daily closing prices.
- * Used as the ATM IV baseline when options markets are closed / bid-ask are stale.
+ * Pull ~90 calendar days of daily closes once and compute HV20 / HV30 / HV60
+ * (annualized log-return stdev for the last N trading days).
  */
-async function fetchHistoricalVol(symbol: string): Promise<number> {
+export async function fetchHistoricalVolWindows(symbol: string): Promise<HvWindows> {
+  const empty: HvWindows = { hv20: 0, hv30: 0, hv60: 0, samples: { hv20: 0, hv30: 0, hv60: 0 } };
   try {
     const end = new Date();
     const start = new Date();
-    start.setDate(start.getDate() - 45); // fetch 45 days to ensure 30 trading days
-
-    const rows = await yf.historical(symbol, {
-      period1: start,
-      period2: end,
-      interval: "1d",
-    });
+    start.setDate(start.getDate() - 95); // ~ 60 trading days + headroom
 
+    const rows = await yf.historical(symbol, { period1: start, period2: end, interval: "1d" });
     const closes = rows
       .map((r) => r.adjClose ?? r.close)
       .filter((v): v is number => v != null && v > 0);
 
-    if (closes.length < 5) return 0;
+    if (closes.length < 5) return empty;
 
     const logReturns: number[] = [];
     for (let i = 1; i < closes.length; i++) {
       logReturns.push(Math.log(closes[i] / closes[i - 1]));
     }
 
-    const mean = logReturns.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / logReturns.length;
-    const variance =
-      logReturns.reduce((sum, r) => sum + (r - mean) ** 2, 0) /
-      (logReturns.length - 1);
-
-    return Math.sqrt(variance * 252); // annualize
+    return {
+      hv20: annualizedVolWindow(logReturns, 20),
+      hv30: annualizedVolWindow(logReturns, 30),
+      hv60: annualizedVolWindow(logReturns, 60),
+      samples: {
+        hv20: Math.min(20, logReturns.length),
+        hv30: Math.min(30, logReturns.length),
+        hv60: Math.min(60, logReturns.length),
+      },
+    };
   } catch {
-    return 0;
+    return empty;
   }
 }
 
+/**
+ * Compute 30-day annualized realized volatility — thin wrapper around
+ * fetchHistoricalVolWindows for the scanner's existing call sites.
+ */
+async function fetchHistoricalVol(symbol: string): Promise<number> {
+  const w = await fetchHistoricalVolWindows(symbol);
+  return w.hv30;
+}
+
 function timeToExpiry(expiryDateStr: string): number {
   const daysRemaining = (new Date(expiryDateStr).getTime() - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);
   return Math.max(daysRemaining, 0) / 365;

backend/src/routes/options.ts

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@
  */
 
 import { Hono } from "hono";
-import { fetchOptionsChain, fetchExpirations, scanSymbol, fetchMovers, type MoverCategory } from "../lib/datafetch.js";
+import { fetchOptionsChain, fetchExpirations, scanSymbol, fetchMovers, fetchHistoricalVolWindows, type MoverCategory } from "../lib/datafetch.js";
 
 /** How old a snapshot can be and still count for the term structure (more lenient than primary TTL). */
 const TERM_STRUCTURE_TTL_MS = 30 * 60 * 1000; // 30 minutes
@@ -326,6 +326,9 @@ optionsRouter.get("/analytics", async (c) => {
       };
     })();
 
+    // Historical (realized) vol windows for HV-vs-IV comparison
+    const hvWindows = await fetchHistoricalVolWindows(symbol);
+
     return c.json(
       ok({
         symbol,
@@ -338,6 +341,7 @@ optionsRouter.get("/analytics", async (c) => {
         callIVs,
         putIVs,
         greeks,
+        hvWindows,
       })
     );
   } catch (err) {

frontend/surface.html

@@ -79,6 +79,73 @@
       color: #ffd43b;
     }
 
+    /* HV vs IV comparison card (top-right of page header) */
+    .hviv-card {
+      background: #161824;
+      border: 1px solid #2d3045;
+      border-radius: 0.5rem;
+      padding: 0.5rem 0.75rem;
+      min-width: 280px;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-head {
+      display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:space-between;
+      border-bottom: 1px solid #2d3045;
+      padding-bottom: 0.35rem;
+      margin-bottom: 0.4rem;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-title {
+      color: #8b95a7;
+      font-size: 0.7rem;
+      font-weight: 700;
+      text-transform: uppercase;
+      letter-spacing: 0.05em;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-badge {
+      font-size: 0.7rem;
+      font-weight: 800;
+      padding: 0.15rem 0.5rem;
+      border-radius: 0.25rem;
+      letter-spacing: 0.04em;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-badge.rich  { background:#ff6b6b; color:#1a1c2e; }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-badge.cheap { background:#51cf66; color:#1a1c2e; }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-badge.fair  { background:#374151; color:#cbd3df; }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row {
+      display: grid;
+      grid-template-columns: 60px 1fr auto;
+      gap: 0.5rem;
+      align-items: baseline;
+      padding: 0.15rem 0;
+      font-size: 0.85rem;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row .label {
+      color: #8b95a7;
+      font-size: 0.72rem;
+      font-weight: 600;
+      text-transform: uppercase;
+      letter-spacing: 0.04em;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row .val {
+      color: #fff;
+      font-weight: 700;
+      font-family: 'JetBrains Mono','Fira Code',monospace;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row .spread {
+      font-family: 'JetBrains Mono','Fira Code',monospace;
+      font-size: 0.78rem;
+      font-weight: 600;
+    }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row .spread.positive { color: #ff6b6b; }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row .spread.negative { color: #51cf66; }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-row.atm   .val   { color: #ffd43b; }
+    .hviv-card .hviv-foot {
+      color: #6c757d;
+      font-size: 0.7rem;
+      margin-top: 0.25rem;
+      border-top: 1px dashed #2d3045;
+      padding-top: 0.3rem;
+    }
+
     [x-cloak] {
       display: none !important;
     }
@@ -279,6 +346,29 @@
               <h2 class="page-title">Volatility Surface</h2>
               <div class="text-secondary mt-1">IV skew analysis and term structure</div>
             </div>
+            <div class="col-auto" x-show="hasData" x-cloak>
+              <div class="hviv-card">
+                <div class="hviv-head">
+                  <span class="hviv-title">HV vs IV</span>
+                  <span class="hviv-badge" :class="hvIvVerdict.cls" x-text="hvIvVerdict.label"></span>
+                </div>
+                <div class="hviv-row atm">
+                  <span class="label">ATM IV</span>
+                  <span class="val" x-text="formatPct(currentMetrics.atmIV)"></span>
+                  <span class="spread">&nbsp;</span>
+                </div>
+                <template x-for="w in hvRows" :key="w.key">
+                  <div class="hviv-row">
+                    <span class="label" x-text="w.label"></span>
+                    <span class="val" x-text="w.value > 0 ? formatPct(w.value) : '—'"></span>
+                    <span class="spread"
+                          :class="w.value > 0 ? (w.spread >= 0 ? 'positive' : 'negative') : ''"
+                          x-text="w.value > 0 ? ((w.spread >= 0 ? '+' : '') + (w.spread * 100).toFixed(1) + ' pts') : ''"></span>
+                  </div>
+                </template>
+                <div class="hviv-foot" x-text="hvIvFooter"></div>
+              </div>
+            </div>
           </div>
         </div>
       </div>
@@ -655,6 +745,7 @@
         errorMsg: '',
         skewTable: [],
         currentMetrics: { atmIV: 0, rr25: 0, fly25: 0 },
+        hvWindows: { hv20: 0, hv30: 0, hv60: 0, samples: { hv20: 0, hv30: 0, hv60: 0 } },
         greeks: { atmCall: null, atmPut: null, itmCall: null, itmPut: null },
         skewChartInstance: null,
         termChartInstance: null,
@@ -753,6 +844,7 @@
           });
 
           this.greeks = data.greeks || { atmCall: null, atmPut: null, itmCall: null, itmPut: null };
+          this.hvWindows = data.hvWindows || { hv20: 0, hv30: 0, hv60: 0, samples: { hv20: 0, hv30: 0, hv60: 0 } };
           this.hasData = true;
 
           // Wait a tick for x-show to render the divs
@@ -916,6 +1008,36 @@
           return v >= 0 ? `+${pct}%` : `${pct}%`;
         },
 
+        // HV vs IV comparison — rows for HV20/30/60 with IV-minus-HV spread (in vol points)
+        get hvRows() {
+          const iv = this.currentMetrics.atmIV || 0;
+          const w  = this.hvWindows || {};
+          return [
+            { key: 'hv20', label: 'HV20', value: w.hv20 || 0, spread: iv - (w.hv20 || 0) },
+            { key: 'hv30', label: 'HV30', value: w.hv30 || 0, spread: iv - (w.hv30 || 0) },
+            { key: 'hv60', label: 'HV60', value: w.hv60 || 0, spread: iv - (w.hv60 || 0) },
+          ];
+        },
+
+        // Verdict: ATM IV vs HV30 — IV >20% above HV30 = RICH, >20% below = CHEAP, else FAIR.
+        get hvIvVerdict() {
+          const iv  = this.currentMetrics.atmIV || 0;
+          const hv  = this.hvWindows?.hv30 || 0;
+          if (!iv || !hv) return { label: 'N/A', cls: 'fair' };
+          const ratio = iv / hv;
+          if (ratio >= 1.20) return { label: 'RICH',  cls: 'rich'  };
+          if (ratio <= 0.80) return { label: 'CHEAP', cls: 'cheap' };
+          return { label: 'FAIR', cls: 'fair' };
+        },
+
+        get hvIvFooter() {
+          const iv = this.currentMetrics.atmIV || 0;
+          const hv = this.hvWindows?.hv30 || 0;
+          if (!iv || !hv) return 'IV/HV — n/a';
+          const ratio = (iv / hv).toFixed(2);
+          return `IV/HV ratio ${ratio}× · HV30 over ${this.hvWindows?.samples?.hv30 ?? 0}d`;
+        },
+
         // Demo data for development / when API is unavailable
         _demoExpirations() {
           return [