INTC trade plan §12.7: clarify that conversion IS the companion

Earlier §12.7 suggested opening a separate long call alongside the
iron fly as a "companion" to capture moonshot upside. That framing
was wrong: it doubles capital at risk while buying expensive 80% IV,
and is redundant with the §6 conversion plan.

The real companion is what the iron fly becomes after the 3-month
conversion — a long $160 call at ~$45 net cost basis, financed by
realized theta. Same exposure as a $1,870 outright purchase, at 4%
of the cost.

Updated §12.7 to:
- Remove the "add a small companion now" suggestion
- Reframe the conversion product as the companion
- List the rejected alternatives explicitly so future-me doesn't
  re-litigate them

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
ojy
2026-05-13 09:24:13 +00:00
parent 398c7cd11b
commit 0a6e357a78

View File

@@ -353,19 +353,39 @@ The diagonal expresses bullishness honestly — you give up the cheap-and-define
### 12.7 What this means for THIS position ### 12.7 What this means for THIS position
The current INTC iron fly is already entered — these 10/10 upgrades don't make it worse, they just say: next time, pair an iron fly with a small directional companion trade. The current INTC iron fly is already entered — these 10/10 upgrades don't make it worse. They just describe what to do next time, and what to do at the conversion point.
**Action item for THIS position**: keep it as-is, follow §5-§8. But also consider opening a **small ($300-500 debit) Jan 2027 long $130 call** alongside it as a separate "moonshot capture" leg. The iron fly handles the calm-rally scenario; the long call handles the gov-shock-rally scenario. Together they cover the full bullish thesis without leaving the upside on the table. **Action item for THIS position**: keep it as-is, follow §5-§8. **DO NOT** open a separate long call now as a "companion" — INTC IV is too rich, and a Jan 2027 OTM call costs $1,500-1,900 (3-4× the iron fly's own max loss). Buying expensive vol while betting that vol will fall is internally inconsistent.
| Combined position | Max loss | Best case (INTC $200) | Calm-rally case (INTC $135) | **The real "companion" is the conversion product itself.** §6 already describes it:
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Iron fly alone | $558 | +$442 | **+$2,942** |
| Long call alone | $500 (debit) | +$6,500 | $500 |
| **Both together** | **$1,058** | **+$6,942** | **+$2,442** |
Cost: an extra $500 of capital at risk. Gain: meaningful upside capture if you're right about the moonshot. Worst case: INTC stays calm and you net $2,442 (still positive) instead of $2,942. **The companion trade is a $500 cost to remove the upside cap.** > After 3 months of stable INTC + IV crush, close 3 legs of the iron fly. You're left holding the original long $160 call at a near-zero net cost basis, financed by realized theta from the short straddle and the long $100 put.
That single addition takes this specific situation from 8.5/10 to ~9.5/10. The remaining 0.5 is multi-name diversification, which only matters across many trades — not this one. **The conversion IS the companion long call.** It gives you:
- Uncapped upside above $160 (vs the iron fly's +$442 cap)
- ~$45 net cost basis (vs $1,870 if bought outright today)
- Funded by 3 months of time decay, not fresh capital
- Same Jan 2027 expiry, same $160 strike — same payoff profile as a standalone long call, but at 4% of the cost
```
Two paths to the same position (long $160 call, Jan 2027):
Buy outright now → pay $1,870 cash
Iron fly + 3-month convert → pay ~$45 net (theta funds it)
+ collect ~$2,000 realized profit along the way
```
The conversion is dramatically more capital-efficient than opening a separate companion trade. **Treat §6 as the companion plan, not an additional position.**
#### Rejected alternatives (and why)
| Idea | Cost | Why rejected |
|---|---:|---|
| Add a long $170 call now | $1,870 | 3.4× iron fly risk; buys expensive 80% IV; redundant with conversion plan |
| Add a $160/$190 call spread now | $790 | Caps moonshot; defeats the "uncap upside" goal |
| Add a long $200 call now | ~$800-1,000 | Not in current chain; far OTM with limited delta |
**Decision: NO companion position added at entry.** The §6 conversion creates the equivalent position at a fraction of the cost.
--- ---